Scouring the mocks - v2.

what they're saying at #11

here is our second peek at who the experts like at #11 for the Texans.

Drafttek (01/18):JJ Watt - DE (Wisconsin)
NFL Draft Scout/Rang (01/17):Von Miller - OLB (Texas A&M)
NFL Draft Scout/Reuter (01/10): - Von Miller - OLB (Texas A&M)
Walter Football (01/20): Von Miller - OLB (Texas A&M)
FF Toolbox (01/17) Ryan Kerrigan - DE (Purdue)

As noted in our first mock draft look, the shift in opinion is swaying towards the team bypassing secondary help and looking pass rush from the outside with Von Miller, JJ Watt or Ryan Kerrigan. Initially, a trade down might be a prudent idea given that there are 3 or 4 legitimate prospects available in that area for the Texans.

By position:
Defensive End - 2
Linebacker - 3

Herring now a two-time Texan, Champ Bailey not wanted in Denver?

As expected, former Texans coach Reggie Herring became a current Texans coach, signing on to become Wade Phillips' defensive coordinator. Herring will be chaged with turning the Texans linebacking corps into a pass-rushing unit from the outside and a run-stopping unit from the inside. He is expressed his excitement in an interview with Fox26's Mark Berman: for the challenge.

“We’re ready to go work. We know the job at hand. We know what’s in front of us, but well get it done...“We got to get a couple of pieces on defense,” Herring said. “If we can do our end, what we're supposed to do on defense and help that great offense they got, the sky is the limit."

In addition to the Herring hiring, the Texans pursuit of reinforcements in the secondary became a more interesting with news that Champ Bailey has heard little interest from the Broncos in a long-term deal. According to MSNBC, Bailey will likely hit the free agent market as the Broncos could pass on signing perennial Pro-Bowler.

Bailey's blue chip status will likely garner offers from teams desperate for secondary help (Houston) and those looking to add to their riches (Jets, Eagles?). Wade Phillips' pedigree (and the Denver tie-in) likely garners the Texans the chance to make a strong bid for Bailey.

His skillset and reputation give the Texans three things:
-The ability for the Texans to shut down one half of the field.
-Move Kareem Jackson to a nickel role and possibly mentor under Bailey.
-Take more of "best (defensive) player available" mindset into the draft instead of feeling the need to reach on a cornerback.

Leach, Ward want to return

2011 Pro-Bowler Vonta Leach is joining Arian Foster in Hawai'i. He would like to join him long-term in the Texans backfield.

"I want to be a Texan," Leach said. "I want to retire as a Texan, but we'll see how this thing goes."

Signed off the street after Ben Tate was lost for the season, backup Derrick Ward feels the same way.

"It would be nice to end my career here, but that's not up to me," Ward said. "That's up to the guys upstairs, so we'll see."

Leach graded out out as one of the league's most effective blocking fullbacks. Ward's veteran presence proved crucial as Foster's backup.

Nobody is really sure about anything unless the impending lockout can be avoided. League business, including any personnel moves, are frozen until the NFL and the NFLPA can come to an agreement on a new labor agreement.

Prospects to look for at East-West Shrine Game

NFL talent evaluators descend on sunny Orlando, Florida this week for the 86th Shrine Game. This game typically showcases players either not invited to the Senior Bowl or those from smaller schools looking for an extra bump in exposure. The Texans have a distinct advantage for this game, as newly minted defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is the coach for the West squad against former Texans advisor Dan Reeves. Phillips was named coach of the team after being fired by Dallas.

While the talent for this game isn't as blue-chip as you will see later in the pre-draft process, there have been several participants have gone onto Hall of Fame careers and others productive stints themselves.

A look at some players the Texans could be more than interested in:

Offense:
Quarterback - The Texans could release Dan Orlovsky and would likely sign a more experienced backup for Matt Schaub. They could also use the draft to find a long range backup and/or starter.

Nathan Enderle (West/Idaho)
Patrick Devlin (East/Delaware)

Defense:

Defensive Tackle - Wade Phillips and Bill Kollar will still look for depth even if the defensive tackle position is filled via free agency or trade before the draft. Marvin Austin is listed because he does not fit as a 4-3 nose.

Terrell McClain (East/South Florida)
Brandon Bair (West/Oregon)
David Carter (West/UCLA)
Ted Laurent (West/Mississippi)
Ian Williams (West/Notre Dame)

Cornerback - One starter will be targeted in free agency and another one could be had on the first day of the draft or trade. None of the players here likely project as rookie starters, but one of more could provide solid depth.

Demarcus Van Dyke (East/Miami)
Cortez Allen (West/Citadel)
Korey Lindsey (West/Southern Illinois)
Darrin Walls (West/Notre Dame)

Safety - Bernard Pollard would be better off having a free safety that could handle more of the pass coverage duties. It would allow him to play more of his "box" position and support the line of scrimmage. But Wade Phillips and Vance Joseph might decide to clean house at safety altogether.

Brian Lainhart (East/Kent State)

Phillips close to filling out his staff

The Texans will interview current Cowboys linebackers coach Reggie Herring Tuesday after naming Vance Joseph defensive backs coach last week. Herring was a member of Wade Phillips' coaching staff from 2008-2010 and also Dom Capers' linebackers coach in Houston in 2002-03. Under Herring's watch, Demarcus Ware notched a 20-sack season in 2008 and added 16 sacks in 2010. It would be Herring's job to find out who plays inside and at rush linebacker in the 3-4 scheme. Going into 2011, it seems as if the rehabbing DeMeco Ryans is the only linebacker guaranteed of a position going into training camp, with Connor Barwin looking to bounce back from injury and Brian Cushing trying to put his PED suspension and inconsistent 12-game season behind him.

Free agents options - Defensive Back (an addendum)

Last week we took a look at the top defensive backs available when the free agent period begins. Now, we add a few more to that list:

Cornerback:

Brent Grimes (RFA - Atlanta): After signing Dunta Robinson for $26 million guaranteed a year ago, the Falcons might not have the money to sign Grimes. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2007, Grimes has intercepted 11 balls the last two years combined and might be a more affordable option than the top-tier of Bailey and Asomugha.

Carlos Rogers - (UFA - Washington): Rogers has been the object of scorn for Redskins fans due his perceived lack of production and stone hands. He seems a little Jacques Reeves for me. I'd pass.

Eric Wright - (UFA - Cleveland): No, not the legendary rapper. Wright is a fourth-year pro who started all 16 games for the Browns in 2008-09 after starting 13 games as a rookie. He replaced in the starting lineup this past year by 2010 first-round pick Joe Haden for inconsistency and a nagging injury. The Texans should, and will, seek more consistency in free agency.

Vance Joseph named Texans DB coach...no Broncos connnection apparent.

After being rebuffed by the Cowboys in their pursuit of a new linebackers coach, the Texans named Vance Joseph their secondary coach. He is taking over what might be the league's biggest reclamation project. He spent the 2005-09 seasons with San Francisco sharing the coaching duties in the secondary with Johnnie Lynn until Lynn left in 2010.

So what are the Texans getting with Joseph? The 49er's pass defense improved by about 37 yards per game, with 2008 being the high water mark under Lynn and Joseph at 219.2. At 14 in 2009, the 49er's had their best year in receiving touchdowns against. In 2010, they regressed to 25 in Joseph's sole year as head of the secondary. A reduction of eight sacks from 2009 to 2010 might have been the cause of the increased production.
An obvious parallel from this is that the 49'er pass defense saw it's most productive year when they reached the quarterback, so pressure with the front seven will be key.

Wade Phillips has never coached with Joseph, but was named to the 49er's staff when Mike Nolan became the 49er's head coach in 2005. Nolan has run a 3-4 scheme in his stops as defensive coordinator.

Scouring the mocks - version 1

what they're saying at #11

here is an initial look at who some of the experts have the Texans taking should they stay at #11.
Drafttek (01/12):Cameron Jordan - DE (California)
NFL Draft Scout/Rang (01/10):Akeem Ayers - OLB (UCLA)
NFL Draft Scout/Reuter (01/10): - Prince Amakumara - CB (Nebraska)
FF Toolbox (01/03):Adrian Clayborn - DE (Iowa)
Draft Season (01/06): Robert Quinn - DE (North Carolina)
Consensus (01/10):Marcel Dareus - DT (Alabama)

Most of these were done before Wade Phillips officially took over as defensive coordinator. Defensive end is probably not a priority in the first round with Mario Williams and Antonio Smith already entrenched there. Defensive tackle might not be a possibility unless there were a trade down, which is almost impossible to project now. The Texans would probably like to pair any cornerback drafted here with a free-agent pickup. Once these mocks are updated, you could see players like OLB Von Miller fill the Texans spot.

By position:
Defensive End - 3
Linebacker - 1
Defensive Tackle- 1
Cornerback - 1

Replacement already on board if Dennison leaves.

Texans offensive coordinator Rick Dennison interviewed with Broncos executive John Elway today for their vacant head coaching position, and is being called the "leader in the clubhouse" for the job, according to Denver Post writer Terry Frei.
Dennison's heart still lies in the Rockies, as he went to high school in Fort Collins and played collegiately at Colorado State.

But Gary Kubiak probably won't have to look far to replace him. Greg Knapp, who joined the team as quarterbacks coach when Dennison was named offensive coordinator, likely gets elevated to coordinator if and when Dennison leaves. He has served in the same capacity with Seattle, Oakland, Atlanta and San Francisco.

Free agent options - Defensive Back

Raiders shut-down cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is eligible for free agency this upcoming offseason. According to the San Jose Mercury News, a performance-based clause in his contract triggered, making him an unrestricted free agent at age 30.
Asomugha is likely to be the hottest free-agent ticket unless Michael Vick decides not to resign with the Falcons. The Redskins have the money, and would surely like to pair Asomugha with 2010 Pro-Bowler DeAngelo Hall. Dallas needs secondary help and the Jets might need someone opposite Revis Island if Antonio Cromartie leaves as a free agent.

But the Texans currently have only one cornerback with more than one year of experience in Glover Quin. The rest of the defensive back depth chart reads Kareem Jackson, Jason Allen, Brice McCain and Antwuan Molden. Rick Smith and the scouting department have done a poor job of finding talent on the defensive side of the ball, usually relying on midseason acquisitions to patch holes.

So is a perennial Pro-Bowler like Asomugha the answer, even at age 30? Or would Champ Bailey be an option, and likely a less expensive one, even at age 33? The Texans need experience to mentor Kareem Jackson or Quin if he remains at cornerback. Free agency is the shortest route to gaining experience, and the Texans need as much as possible even if they have to overpay.
Here are the top opportunities at cornerback available to the Texans in 2011:

Nnamdi Asomugha - The 2003 draftee has only 11 interceptions in his career and reaches the age at which NFL general managers are loathe to commit to a player long-term. But he fits the good-guy mold for Bob McNair with his several charitable endeavors and will be the most sought-after defensive player on the free-agent market if the Raiders don't resign him long-term. The Texans can, and should, pursue Asomugha.

Champ Bailey - The 12-year veteran is likely the second-best cornerback in the AFC West, and will remain the same this offseason. He likely comes with a slightly lower price tag than Asomugha and did play two seasons in Denver with Gary Kubiak. that familiarity could make Bailey the Texans' number one free agent target. His age shouldn't keep the Texans from offering Bailey a sizeable contract offer and allowing to him to take fellow SEC alum Kareem Jackson under his wing.

Ike Taylor - Like Asomugha, Taylor is a Louisiana native. Unlike Asomugha, he is two-time Super Bowl champion with the Steelers and also a veteran of the 3-4 defense under guru Dick LeBeau. A stout run-defender, Taylor gives Wade Phillips a captain in the secondary with championship pedigree in tow. He could be seen as a "1A" to Bailey in terms of the Texans free-agent options.

Johnathan Joseph - Most pending free-agents probably don't want to stay in Cincinnati, but Joseph says he's okay with signing long-term with the Bengals or having the team place the franchise tag on him. So there is not even a good chance Joseph reaches the market, where his age and a strong 2010 on a woeful Bengals team would make him a hot commodity.

Richard Marshall - Ron Rivera is rumored to be a finalist for the Panthers head-coaching, and he would love to hold onto Marshall. But Marshall isn't likely returning to the Panthers and might give a team the same kind of production with less fanfare.

Antonio Cromartie - Cromartie played opposite Darrelle Revis this year with the Jets. He was traded last year from San Diego, bringing his impending free agency and personal baggage with him. He probably plays as more of a "Robin" to a team's more established "Batman." While he would provide experience, he would be a guy I would avoid unless all of the above options are exhausted.

Here are some realistic options available at safety this offseason.

Eric Weddle - The four-year veteran will hit free agency as possibly the best option available at safety. He has played the last three years as a defensive coordinator under Ron Rivera. He made a transition to free safety before the 2008 season and his fast wheels (4.48 40-yard at 2007 combine) enable him a chance to close fast over the middle, and catch up with whoever gets past Bernard Pollard.

Dashon Goldson - The 26-year-old free safety is looking for a payday, switching agents to Drew Rosenhaus in June 2010. His best year was in 2009, his first as a starter, with four interceptions.

If I am playing general manager, I'd go after Champ Bailey the minute free agency dropped. Asomugha likely flies above the Texans radar and Bailey could be interested with the Kubiak/Denver connection. If Bailey's price is too prohibitive (even with Bob McNair's checkbook), my next call is to Richard Marshall. He has no interest in returning to Carolina and the Texans need difference makers at defensive back. Weddle's versatility could be hard to pass up if he is interested. Unless the Texans get lucky and land Patrick Peterson to play safety or Prince Amakumara opposite a hopeful veteran, there isn't much left that would make sense at #11. Making a splash to fill at least one of these positions in free agency seems like the surer route so you don't have to reach for need in the draft.

How much is Foster worth?

Arian Foster went undrafted in 2010, maybe due to a down senior year, a history of putting the ball on the ground in Knoxville. The Texans were able to secure him with a two-year deal shortly after the draft concluded. He proceeded to spend most of the year behind Steve Slaton and (unexplicably) Chris Brown on the depth chart. A strong two-game finish to end the year against Miami and New England saw Foster enter 2010 atop the depth chart. Ben Tate's season-ending injury in the preseason cemented Foster's status as a true three-down back. Foster then thrust himself to the national spotlight with a 200-yard performance versus the Colts.


Sixteen regular-season games later, Foster is the league's rushing champion with 1,616 yards and a trip to Hawai'i, along with offensive teammates Andre Johnson and Vonta Leach. Foster has also armed himself with four months of consistent play that will allow to command a sizeable raise form his rookie contract in 2011. His seamless fit in the zone-blocking scheme allows the Texans to better disguise running and passing plays, opening up the field for the play-action game.

Foster is a restricted free-agent in 2011, meaning it is essentially up to the Texans to lock up Foster.

Do master negotiator Rick Smith and his boss Gary Kubiak consider a long-term deal for Foster?

Let's examine two of the most recent cases of young running backs getting raises after promising starts:

Chris Johnson hinted for months before the 2010 season that he was deserving of a contract worthy of his stellar first two years, the latter of which included a 2,000 yard season. His request to be the league's highest paid back were confirmed yet claims of requesting $30-40 million guaranteed are disputed. He and the Titans eventually settled, moving a bonus he would have been due in 2012 to 2010.

Jamaal Charles shared time with Thomas Jones in 2010, But Kansas City clearly sees him as the future in the backfield. According to Pro Football Talk, he signed a six-year, $27.97 million extension that cements him as the Chiefs' primary ball-carrier in 2011 and beyond. Only $8 million of the contract is guaranteed, paid in a roster bonus after the contract is signed.

The Charles deal seems as a good framework for the Texans to negotiate with Foster. It gives Foster and the Texans some short-term security. If he continues to perform on par with 2010, the team and him can talk about a more lucrative deal in the coming years. A deal with Foster gets the team its' three most important offensive pieces in Foster, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub under contract through at least the 2012.

Where does Phillips start?

As much as I wanted the team to ferry in a few other candidates, I like the potential of the Wade Phillips 3-4. I have preferred the attacking style of the system, probably because watching the last five years of the Richard Smith/Frank Bush 4-3 have wiped my memory clean of what an "attacking" defense looks like.

Problem is, Bob McNair will have the same scouting staff advising the same general manager and head coach that never had a defense finish above 13th in total defense. The desperation in Gary Kubiak's voice at his end of year presser likely means that he is ceding some of the personnel stroke to the incoming DC. It is unclear how the power structure works for the Texans, but Phillips will surely command a big seat at the table come free agency and the draft. They likely need a nose tackle, a starter at outside linebacker, one cornerback and safety (preferably one with soft hands unlike Eugene Wilson).

Where does the front office (and likely Phillips) begin?

Texans gain 11th pick

By virtue of their gutsy season-ending win versus Jacksonville, the Texans
secured the elevemth overall pick in the 2011 draft. After the same 6-10 finish
in 2006, the team in the tenth position drafted Amobi Okoye after swapping picks in the first round
with the Atlanta Falcons as part of the
Matt Schaub trade. While too late to secure one of the top defensive backs
like Prince Amakamura or Patrick Peterson, the Texans will likely have their
pick of several blue-chip defensive lineman. Potential coaching changes aside,
the team will likely consider defensive tackles like Stephen Paea, who has been compared favorably to Pro-Bowler Jay Ratliff.

One other possibility to consider is a trade-down with a team eager to draft
one of the several quarterbacks rumored to go in the first 15 picks. They
wouldn't have a shot at this native Houstonian, but Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton or Jake Locker could be available.

Of course, we have no idea what will happen until owner Bob McNair does his remaining due diligence and consideration of the 2010 coaching and scouting staff.

Texans head coach - other names to consider

If Bob McNair does the unexpected and fires Gary Kubiak after tomorrow's game versus Jacksonville,
he will have available to him an unprecedented pool of former head coaches or experienced coordinators
looking to cut their teeth.

Some names he should consider are:

Gregg WIlliams - Currently the defensive coordinator of the Saints, he has successfully devised a game
plan to get in Peyton Manning's head. He saw limited success in four seasons as the head coach of the
Buffalo Bills, finishing with a 17-31 record. He latched on with the Washington Redskins a year later
followed by stops in Jacksonville and the New Orleans. His 4-3 philosophy would allow the Texans to
keep their base 4-3 that they now employ.

Ron RIvera - Rivera is the defensive coordinator for the Chargers. In 2010, the defense ranks first overall
and first against the run even while playing four games against the top two rushing teams in the league (Oakland
and Kansas City). He also guided the Chicago Bears defense to a Super Bowl appearance in 2007. Rivera runs a
3-4, so resources in the draft and free agency would be needed to get the type of nose tackle that the scheme
requires.

John Fox - His reign as Panthers head coach will end Week 17. He has been linked to the
to a return to the Giants as defensive coordinator, but would likely draw interviews from teams looking to fill
head coaching vacancies.