How much is Foster worth?

Arian Foster went undrafted in 2010, maybe due to a down senior year, a history of putting the ball on the ground in Knoxville. The Texans were able to secure him with a two-year deal shortly after the draft concluded. He proceeded to spend most of the year behind Steve Slaton and (unexplicably) Chris Brown on the depth chart. A strong two-game finish to end the year against Miami and New England saw Foster enter 2010 atop the depth chart. Ben Tate's season-ending injury in the preseason cemented Foster's status as a true three-down back. Foster then thrust himself to the national spotlight with a 200-yard performance versus the Colts.


Sixteen regular-season games later, Foster is the league's rushing champion with 1,616 yards and a trip to Hawai'i, along with offensive teammates Andre Johnson and Vonta Leach. Foster has also armed himself with four months of consistent play that will allow to command a sizeable raise form his rookie contract in 2011. His seamless fit in the zone-blocking scheme allows the Texans to better disguise running and passing plays, opening up the field for the play-action game.

Foster is a restricted free-agent in 2011, meaning it is essentially up to the Texans to lock up Foster.

Do master negotiator Rick Smith and his boss Gary Kubiak consider a long-term deal for Foster?

Let's examine two of the most recent cases of young running backs getting raises after promising starts:

Chris Johnson hinted for months before the 2010 season that he was deserving of a contract worthy of his stellar first two years, the latter of which included a 2,000 yard season. His request to be the league's highest paid back were confirmed yet claims of requesting $30-40 million guaranteed are disputed. He and the Titans eventually settled, moving a bonus he would have been due in 2012 to 2010.

Jamaal Charles shared time with Thomas Jones in 2010, But Kansas City clearly sees him as the future in the backfield. According to Pro Football Talk, he signed a six-year, $27.97 million extension that cements him as the Chiefs' primary ball-carrier in 2011 and beyond. Only $8 million of the contract is guaranteed, paid in a roster bonus after the contract is signed.

The Charles deal seems as a good framework for the Texans to negotiate with Foster. It gives Foster and the Texans some short-term security. If he continues to perform on par with 2010, the team and him can talk about a more lucrative deal in the coming years. A deal with Foster gets the team its' three most important offensive pieces in Foster, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub under contract through at least the 2012.